Minneapolis (AP) — The decline in COVID-19 cases across the United States over the past few weeks has given some relief to overwhelming hospitals, but as the cold drives people indoors, managers have yet to do more. We are preparing for a possible surge.
According to health experts, the fourth wave of pandemics peaked throughout the United States, especially in the Deep South, where hospitals reached their limits a few weeks ago. However, many northern states are still suffering from an increase in incidents, and the winter future is much less clear.
It’s unclear how the flu season could strain hospital staff who are already depleted, and whether those who refuse vaccination will change their minds.
An estimated 70 million eligible Americans have not been vaccinated and are igniting highly contagious delta variants.
“If you are not vaccinated or protected from natural infections, this virus will find you,” said Dr. Mike Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.
Nationally, the number of people currently hospitalized for COVID-19 has dropped from more than 93,000 in early September to about 75,000. The average number of new cases is decreasing at about 112,000 per day, which is about one-third in the last two and a half weeks.
Deaths also appear to be declining, with the United States closing on Friday with a tragic milestone of 700,000 total deaths since the pandemic began, with an average of about 1,900 people per day. A week ago there were over 2,000 people.
The mitigation of the summer surge is due to more mask wear and more people being vaccinated. The decrease in the number of cases may also be due to the virus burning up sensitive people and running out of fuel in some places.
In another promising development, Merck told COVID-19 on Friday that experimental pills for sick people cut hospitalizations and deaths in half. If it wins regulatory approval, it will be the first pill to treat COVID-19 and an important and easy-to-use new weapon to combat the pandemic.
All treatments currently approved for coronavirus in the United States require IV or injection.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease specialist, warned on Friday that promising trends may be seen as a reason to remain unvaccinated.
“The good news is that the curves are starting to appear,” he said. “It’s no excuse to get away from the problem of having to be vaccinated.”
At the Hour Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, COVID-19 hospitalizations began to surge in mid-July and exceeded capacity by the first week of August. It stopped elective surgery and brought in military doctors and nurses to help care for the patient.
Currently, the number of incidents is decreasing and the military team is scheduled to leave at the end of October.
Still, hospital chief medical officer Dr. Catherine O’Neill said hospitalization rates were as rapid as in the community, as delta variants affect more young people who are otherwise healthy and long-lived. Ventilator intensive care unit said it has not diminished.
“It produces many ICU patients who don’t move anywhere,” she said. And many of the patients have never gone home. In the past few weeks, hospitals have seen more than five COVID-19 deaths daily for several days, including one day when 10 people died.
“We lost another dad in our 40s just a few days ago,” O’Neill said. “It keeps happening, and that’s the COVD tragedy.”
As for where the outbreak goes from here, she said, “My crystal ball has broken many times over the last two years.”
Dr. Sandra Chemary, director of hospital quality systems at Oxner Health, Louisiana, said the fourth pandemic surge would be even more difficult. “It’s only frustrating for people to die of vaccine-preventable illnesses,” she said.
At the peak of this latest wave, Oxner Hospital had 1,074 COVID-19 patients on August 9. It dropped to 208 as of Thursday.
Other hospitals are declining as well. At the University of Mississippi Medical Center, 146 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized during peak hours in mid-August. It was down to 39 on Friday. Lexington Medical Center in West Columbia, South Carolina, had more than 190 in early September, but only 49 on Friday.
Like many other medical professionals, Natalie Dean, a professor of biostatistics at Emory University, takes a cautious view of winter.
It is unclear whether the coronavirus follows the seasonal pattern of influenza, and there is a predictable peak in winter when people gather indoors for vacations. Due to the size and diversity of the country, there will be places where there will be outbreaks and surges, she said.
In addition, the uncertainty of human behavior complicates the situation. People react to risk by taking precautions and delay the transmission of the virus. Then, feeling safer, people mix more freely, creating a new wave of transmission.
“The infectious disease model is different from the meteorological model,” Dean said. “The hurricane doesn’t change course because of what the model said.”
One of the University of Washington’s influential models predicts that new cases will reoccur this fall, but with vaccine protection and infection-induced immunity, the virus will kill as many lives as last winter. You will not be able to.
Still, the model predicts that another 93,000 Americans will die by January 1, with a total death toll of 788,000 by that date. The model predicts that if almost everyone wears a mask in a public place, 44,000 of these deaths can be avoided.
“Wearing a mask is already in the wrong direction,” said Ali Mokudad, a professor of health metric science at the university. “Our hospital is exhausted, so we need to make sure we are ready for the winter.”
___
Johnson reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Zeke Miller contributed from Washington, DC
US COVID cases are declining, but hospitals are preparing for the next wave | WGN Radio 720
Source link US COVID cases are declining, but hospitals are preparing for the next wave | WGN Radio 720
The post US COVID cases are declining, but hospitals are preparing for the next wave | WGN Radio 720 appeared first on Illinois News Today.
No comments:
Post a Comment