Fantasy Play: Players Sit Starting NFL Week 7 | WGN Radio 720

The start or sit dilemma is part of managing a fantasy football team.

Having the foresight and match-up touchdown to start a 100-yard wide receiver while sitting the receiver against a shut-down cornerback is one of the keys to victory.

This version of Start Oasis lists all related fantasy football players weekly and places them in a hierarchy.

It then leverages thousands of slate simulations based on numberFire player predictions with dynamic variance measurements such as quarterback crash, running back reception, and receiver target depth to get rid of some of the guesswork.

The results are summarized in three layers: players who need to be confident in starting, players who can consider starting whenever there is no better option, but not required, and when we have Is a better option than players who always have to challenge the bench.

These players are listed in order of how often they reach the specified threshold (that is, the higher the QB12, RB24, WR24, and TE12 performances in the list, the more likely they are to start).

Grouping reflects a 12-team single quarterback league with the following hypothesis in mind: Should I start this player this week if there are other viable options on the bench or exemption wire?

Players not listed should be estimated to be worth sitting in a shallow or standard size league, and all fantasy point references and rankings reflect half the score of the PPR.

Quarterback

Start with confidence: According to slate simulations, at least 50% of these players could end the week as top 12 quarterbacks.

– Kyler Murray vs. HOU (83%)

– TEN’s Patrick Mahomes (82%)

– Matthew Stafford vs. DET (74%)

– Lamar Jackson vs. CIN (74%)

– Tom Brady vs. CHI (66%)

– Jalen Hurts LV (65%)

– Aaron Rodgers vs WSH (64%)

– Derek Carr vs. PHI (59%)

Please consider if necessary. In this hierarchy, the probability of posting the top 12 weeks is between 35% and 49%.

– Ryan Tannehill vs. KC (49%)

– Daniel Jones vs CAR (49%)

– MIA Matt Ryan (49%)

– Jimmy Garoppolo vs. IND (49%)

– Tua Tagovailoa vs ATL (48%)

– BAL’s Joe Burrow (45%)

– Mac Jones vs NYJ (44%)

– NYG Sam Darnold (41%)

– SEA’s James Winston (37%)

Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans are in a great position against the Kansas City Chiefs, but they may have to play without a fight with Taylor Lewan and perhaps without receiver Julio Jones. Tannehill basically played to the level of his opponents this season, but this works because Chiefs Defense is ranked 29th against the pass, according to indicators adjusted by his opponents in numberFire. ..

Tua Tagovailoa returned to a strong outing in London after throwing 329 yards and two touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the sixth week (32nd in coordinated pass defense). It was about expectations for such a weak defense, but with the Atlanta Falcons ranked 30th against the pass, Tua is okay to be able to do it again.

Sam Darnold’s hot start has cooled dramatically in the last three games, during which he earned -0.20 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per dropback (NFL average 0.13). This resulted in only 228.3 yards per game and 1.3 touchdowns. He certainly remains in the streaming conversation as he draws the New York Giants’ 25th-place adjusted path defense in the seventh week.

Bench if possible: These quarterbacks have less than 35% chance of getting top 12 results (17th or lower) and may not be included in the quarterback league conversation.

CLE’s Teddy Bridgewater (32%); NE’s Zach Wilson (32%); TB’s Justin Fields (32%); Case Keenham vs. DEN (31%); SF’s Carson Wentz (30%); LA’s Jared Goff (28%); Geno Smith vs. NO (27%); ARI’s Davis Mills (19%).

Running back

Start with confidence: According to slate simulations, at least 60% of these running backs can finish the week in the top 24. You are starting them.

– Derrick Henry vs. KC (86%)

– SEA’s Alvin Kamara (86%)

– Darrell Henderson vs. DET (78%)

– Aaron Jones vs WSH (77%)

– NYG’s Chuba Hubbard (75%)

– Leonard Fournette vs. CHI (73%)

– SF Jonathan Taylor (69%)

– LA’s D’Andre Swift (68%)

– BAL’s Joe Mixon (67%)

– Josh Jacobs vs. PHI (67%)

– TEN Darrell Williams (64%)

– Devontae Booker vs. CAR (61%)

– MIA Cordarel Patterson (60%)

– Miles Sanders at LV (60%)

Please consider if necessary. This layer is between 40% and 59% in RB 2 weeks, and even if you’re shy at its top layer, you’re probably starting some of them.

– Darnest Johnson vs. DEN (59%)

– James Conner vs. HOU (55%)

– Damian Harris vs. NYJ (54%)

– MIA’s Mike Davis (54%)

– Elijah Mitchell vs. IND (53%)

– TB Damian Williams (50%)

– CLE’s Jabonte Williams (49%)

– Chase Edmonds vs. HOU (47%)

– CLE’s Melvin Gordon (46%)

– Miles Gaskin vs. ATL (45%)

– GB JDMcKissic (45%) / GB Antonio Gibson (35%)

– NE’s Michael Carter (44%)

While Cleveland Browns is without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running back, Darnest Johnson puts a slot in the first role on the surface. The chances should be solid, but the team will also launch Case Keenum against Denver Broncos Defense, which ranks 15th in action with coordinated Path Defense. But their implicit team total is still viable 21.75, and if you take Johnson out of the exemption, you’re starting him with many names.

Elijah Mitchell returned to a snap rate of 67.8% in the fifth week, handling nine of the 11 running back carries while winning two targets. It’s a powerful role, and despite his opposition to Indianapolis Colts, he’s back in the RB2 / FLEX conversation.

The statuses of JDMcKissic and Antonio Gibson are interdependent and are listed together. Gibson didn’t practice on Wednesday. If Gibson plays, you can play him. If not, you can think of McKissic as a low-end RB2 / high-end FLEX play. In this game, you need to provide enough passes for Washington’s major receivebacks.

Michael Carter continues to pop up as a viable process-based play. This is despite low expectations for the New York Jets attack (their implicit team total is only 17.75 points) and the New England Patriots. Carter has been playing with 47.6% of the team’s snaps since the second week, with a 43.8% red zone rush share, an average of 10.8 carry and 3.0 targets per game.

Bench if possible: These backs are less than 40% and may give you top 24 results.

TB Karil Herbert (39%); AJ Dillon vs WSH (36%); LA Jamal Williams (35%); Mark Ingram at ARI (35%); Demetric Felton vs DEN (34%); Ratavius ​​Murray Vs. CIN (34%); Kenneth Gainwell at LV (28%); Sony Michel vs. DET (28%); Alex Collins vs. NO (27%); Rhamondre Stevenson vs. NYJ (27%); ARI’s David Johnson ( 25%); Trey Sermon vs. IND (24%); SF Naiheim Hines (23%); Salvon Ahmed vs. ATL (23%); Kenyan Drake vs. PHI (21%); Devonta Freeman vs. CIN (21%) ); GB Jarrett Patterson (20%); DJ Dallas vs NO (20%); TEN Jerick McKinnon (20%); Malcolm Brown vs ATL (20%); Le’Veon Bell vs CIN (20%) ).

Wide receiver

Get started with confidence: You are starting these guys in a league of 12 teams.

– Cool Park vs. DET (86%)

– TEN’s Tyreek Hill (81%)

– Davante Adams vs WSH (79%)

– Divo Samuel vs. IND (74%)

– DeAndre Hopkins vs. HOU (72%)

– MIA’s Calvin Ridley (68%)

– NYG DJ Moore (65%)

– AJ Brown vs. KC (64%)

– Robert Woods vs. DET (63%)

– Ja’Marr Chase at BAL (57%)

– LV DeVonta Smith (55%)

– Chris Godwin vs. CHI (54%)

– GB Terry McLaughlin (53%)

– ARI’s Brandin Cooks (52%)

– DK Metcalf vs NO (50%)

Please consider if necessary. These players rely more on week 1 matches than the tiers above, but this week they may be looking for a lot of WR2, WR3, and FLEX play.

– CLE’s Courtland Sutton (49%)

– Antonio Brown vs. CHI (48%)

– Jaylen Waddle vs. ATL (47%)

– Jakobi Meyers vs NYJ (47%)

– Sterling Shepherd vs. CAR (46%)

– Tyler Lockett vs. NO (45%)

– BAL Tea Higgins (44%)

– SF Michael Pittman Jr. (43%)

– Mike Evans vs. CHI (42%)

– Tuberculosis Allen Robinson (40%)

– Julio Jones vs. KC (39%)

– Marquise Brown vs. CIN (39%)

– NE’s Corey Davis (36%)

– CLE’s Tim Patrick (36%)

– NYG Robby Anderson (35%)

If you haven’t done so already, it’s time to connect Courtland Sutton every week. Sutton has averaged 188.3 airyards per game in the last three weeks, becoming one of the two receivers in that span and averaging 135.0 per game in multiple games (177.9 Terry McLaughlin is another). ..

The workload of Jaylen Waddle in the sixth week was quite astounding. Waddle processed 13 targets at 70 yards (120 air yards) and made two touchdowns. This turned out to be a target market share of 27.7%, which also pulled out one-third (2/6) of the team’s red zone target. The Falcons are ranked 32nd in the adjusted fantasy points allowed for wide receivers.

Sterling Shepherd faces a tough pass defense and is ranked 5th overall in the adjusted pass defense, but after adjusting the opponents he is facing, he is only 21st against the receiver. Shepherd’s role should be secured in the 7th week after running 96.4% of the New York Giants route and subtracting a target share of 29.2% (plus 33.3% (2/6) of the team’s Red Zone Look). ..

Bench if possible: These players finished as WR2 or higher in 30% of the time.

Odell Beckham vs. DEN (33%); TB Darnell Mooney (31%); Henry Rag vs. PHI (30%); Nelson Agroll vs. NYJ (30%); Hunter Renfroe vs. PHI (29%); Christian Kirk vs. HOU (27%); Van Jefferson vs. DET (27%); TY Hilton at SF (25%); Darnell Mooney vs. CAR (24%); Brandon Aiyuk vs. IND (24%); BAL’s Tyler Boyd (24%) 24%); AJ Green vs. HOU (24%); NE’s Jamison Clouder (23%); Rashodo Bateman vs. CIN (23%); LA’s Calif Raymond (23%); Marques Valdes-Scantling vs. WSH (22%); TEN’s Mekor Hardman (22%); Rondale Moore vs. HOU (22%); Jarvis Laundry vs. DEN (21%); LV’s Jalen Reagor (21%); SEA’s Marquez Caraway (22%) 20%).

Tight end

Start with confidence:

– TEN Travis Kelce (90%)

– Darren Waller vs. PHI (84%)

– Mark Andrews vs. CIN (74%)

– MIA’s Kylepits (63%)

– Mike Geshitsuki vs. ATL (57%)

Please consider if necessary. If you don’t have a top tier tight end, you might start these options.

– Tyler Hibee vs. DET (55%)

– CLE Noah Fant (53%)

– LA TJ Hockenson (51%)

– Hunter Henry vs NYJ (49%)

– Evan Engram vs. CAR (45%)

– Ricky Shields-GB Jones (42%)

– Jonnu Smith vs NYJ (40%)

– Zack Elts vs. HOU (37%)

– LV Dallas Gedelt (35%)

Tyler Higbee has all the right peripherals needed for tight end (89.4% snap rate, 78.8% root rate, 27.3% red zone target share), but it’s actually quite up to the limit. not. It could change this week against the league’s worst defense against the tight end.

Noah Fant is up to 5th in target market share (19.7%) and is one of seven tight ends averaging at least one downfield target (16 or more airyards) per game. Highly leveraged workloads are extremely powerful for tight end.

Ricky Shields Jones is rock-in-play at this point. He ran the route in two games without Logan Thomas with 90.2% of Washington’s dropback. This is the rate that leads the position in the sample and also leads in the full season.

Bench if possible: Unless you’re desperate, these tight ends aren’t in the first conversation of the 12-team league.

OJ Howard vs. CHI (34%); Rothdwelly vs. IND (33%); Cole Kumet at TB (32%); Robert Tonyan vs. WSH (31%); Cameron Brate vs. CHI (31%); NYG Ian Thomas (29%); NYG Tommy Remble (28%); Anthony Farkzer vs. KC (27%); Austin Hooper vs. DEN (26%); ARI Jordan Akins (23%); LV Jason Kroom (23%); Mo Alie-Cox at SF (21%); Gerald Everett vs. NO (20%).

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Fantasy Play: Players Sit Starting NFL Week 7 | WGN Radio 720

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