NOAA announces US winter weather forecast

NS: Alix Martichoux, Nexstar Media Wire

Posted: Posted October 21, 2021 / 3:16 pm CDT / Has been updated: October 21, 2021 / 3:16 pm CDT

NOAA has announced its winter outlook for 2021-22. (NOAAClimate.gov based on NWSCPC data)

Climate experts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have summarized what they believe to be the most likely weather patterns we will see with respect to temperature, rain, snow and La Niña this winter.

The agency has announced its winter outlook for the 2021-22 season: The La Niña phenomenon begins to take root 2 years in a row.

Before jumping into forecasts, John Gottschalck, head of NOAA’s Operations Forecasts branch, reminds everyone that this outlook is probabilistic. “Other results are possible, but unlikely,” he said.

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Here’s what NOAA predicts about winter weather across the country:

temperature

NOAA predicts warmer than average winters in most parts of the country. The South and Gulf Coast are most likely to have warmer winters than usual. Many in the Southwest, Midwest and Northeast can also expect warmer winters.

Colder than average winters can occur in the Pacific Northwest, Montana, and the western half of Dakota.

Northern California, Wyoming, and Minnesota seem to have normal temperatures.

This US winter outlook 2021-2022 temperature map shows warmer than average temperatures in most of the southern and eastern United States, but average temperatures in southeastern Alaska and the Pacific Northwest to northern plains. It is below. (NOAA Climate.gov, using NWS CPC data)

Precipitation (rain and snow)

The Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions are most likely to have more than average rainy winters this year. Precipitation can also increase in northern Rocky Mountains, New York, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, and parts of Missouri.

The southern half of the country is looking at drier conditions, especially in the southwest, Florida, and southern Georgia.

The rest of the country should expect an average amount of rain or snow.

This precipitation forecast has much to do with La Niña, which is already taking root.

This map of the winter outlook for US precipitation from 2021 to 2022 shows that the wetter than average occurs in parts of the north, primarily in the northwestern Pacific, northern Rocky Mountains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and western Alaska. Indicates that you are likely to. Dryer than average is preferred in Southcentral Alaska, Southern California, Southwestern, and Southeastern California. (NOAAClimate.gov based on NWSCPC data)

La Niña and drought

According to Gottschalk, the La Niña phenomenon is projected to affect the country’s winter weather for the second consecutive year.

According to Gottschalk, this year’s La Niña will be a medium (or upper limit) La Niña pattern. This indicates that winters are rainy in the Midwest and parts of the Tennessee Valley, but dry in the southern United States.

The southwestern drought appears to be particularly exacerbated. In the southwest, the drought situation is projected to worsen in the coming months.

NOAA predicts winter in La Niña.This is the meaning of where you live

But things are looking for the Pacific Northwest, said Brad Pew, NOAA’s operational drought leader. “The strongest confidence to improve drought conditions” is found in the Pacific Northwest, Pew said, where the next two weeks already seem to bring a lot of rain.

California is split in two by the La Niña pattern, bringing more rainfall to Northern California and less than normal rainfall to Southern California, but it is difficult to accurately predict where that line will fall.

This seasonal US drought outlook map from November 2021 to January 2022 predicts sustained droughts in the western, northern plains, and Missouri River basins. Drought improvement is expected in the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, Upper Midwest, and Hawaii. (NOAAClimate.gov based on NWSCPC data)

Droughts are not a major issue in the South, Midwest and Northeast this year.

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