In the event of the Roe v. Wade case, the dispute over the abortion law will not be eased.

On both sides of the American abortion controversy, activists are convinced that the Roe v. Wade case, the 1973 Supreme Court’s decision to establish national rights to abortion, is more dangerous than ever.

However, no matter how the current conservative-controlled courts deal with the pending high-profile abortion cases, they will probably undermine Roe and perhaps completely eradicate it, but a national change in monoliths. there is no. The fierce battle between states for access to abortion will continue.

The end of Roe is likely to encourage imposing a total ban on at least 20 Republican states. Perhaps 15 Democratic states will reaffirm their support for access to abortion.

More complex are politically divided states where the conflict over abortion law can be fierce, which can be a volatile issue in the 2022 elections.

“Many of these states are separated from a very different political situation in a single election when it comes to abortion,” said Jessica Allons, a reproductive lawyer for the American Civil Liberties Union.

These states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and now have a Democratic Governor and a Republican-controlled legislature. Next year’s Republican Governor’s victory could position these states to join other states and impose a ban if Roe becomes invalid.

The net impact on abortion prevalence is difficult to predict, given that many in banned states continue to strive to end unwanted pregnancies. You may face hundreds of miles of driving to reach your nearest clinic. Others may get an abortion drug by mail to end their pregnancy on their own.

Some briefs submitted to the Supreme Court in light of Mississippi law prohibiting most abortions after 15 weeks reflect the views of 154 economists and researchers. If abortions become illegal in 23 states, they calculate that the number of abortions in clinics across the country will decrease by about 14%, or about 120,000, the following year.

Abortion activists predict that colored women, rural residents, low-income women, and LGBTQ people will be disproportionately affected.

In this scenario, according to economists, the ban affects 26 million women of parenting age, increasing the average distance to the nearest abortion clinic from 35 miles (56 kilometers) to 279 miles (449 kilometers).

Elizabeth Nash of the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization that supports the right to abortion, said Roe’s internal organs have several democratic government states and abortions to accelerate programs that help people cross state boundaries for abortion. It is said to activate the rights group.

“But things will be complicated and difficult very soon,” she said. “You are disrupting the entire national abortion care network, and people will be seeking abortions where they may not yet have sufficient capacity for the people of their state.”

Preview possibilities are unfolding at the Planned Parenthood clinic in Fairview Heights, Illinois, just outside St. Louis. It opened in 2019 as an abortion option for people in Missouri and other nearby Republican-controlled states.An increase in patients from afar has been seen as strict bans in Texas create a backlog of bookings throughout the South Central United States.

Dr. Colleen McNicholas, Chief Medical Officer of Planned Parenthood, a reproductive health service in the St. Louis region, said the clinic is preparing for the potential influx of an additional 14,000 women seeking abortion services if post-Roe bans surge. Said.

“We are absolutely thinking about what operational changes are needed. We will keep it open 7 days a week and operate 2 shifts daily to absorb that many patients,” she says. I did.

Already, the patient is “extremely frustrated” with a drive of up to 9 hours from home, she said.

Anti-abortionist Michael New, who teaches social research at the American Catholic University, said the potential for out-of-state abortions and an increase in “abortion” is some faced by the anti-abortion movement. Said that it is one of the challenges of. The end of Roe has come true.

Another potential challenge: Some democratic prosecutors may refuse to enforce the ban.

For example, books were banned 90 years ago in Michigan. Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel says she wouldn’t enforce it if it became a law. Local prosecutor Eli Savit, a Democrat in Washtenaw County, tweeted that “no one will ever be prosecuted for exercising reproductive freedom.”

There is consensus that Roe is more vulnerable than ever, but there is no certainty as to how the Supreme Court will proceed. Clues will surface on December 1st when judges hear discussions at the Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

In that case, Mississippi followed in court with Roe in 1992 to prevent the state from banning abortion before survival, which is about 24 weeks of gestation at which the foetation can survive outside the womb. I am asking you to reject the up decision.

If the court simply upholds the Mississippi ban, other Republican-controlled states may take similar steps. According to the Guttmacher Institute, 6.3% to 7.4% of abortions in the United States, or 54,000 to 63,000 per year, occur after the 15th week of pregnancy.

However, activists on the other side believe that the High Court is ready to proceed further in either the Mississippi proceedings or subsequent proceedings, allowing the state to impose a total ban at will. Disable Roe.

“For nearly fifty years, the state has been prevented from passing an abortion law that reflects the value of the people who live there,” said Susan B. Anthonylist Mallory Egley, an anti-abortion group. rice field. “Dobbs is the best opportunity to fix it since 1973.”

Wisconsin could be one of the most disputed battlefields, as it has enacted a law of 1849 that criminalizes abortion. However, even if the law goes into force, it may not come into force if the Democratic Party serves as governor, attorney general, or district attorney for Milwaukee and Madison, home of the abortion clinic, in next year’s elections.

The 2022 elections are likely to inspire activists in each camp, says Jurein Apring, an anti-abortionist who heads the Wisconsin Family Council.

“A wise candidate running on either side will say that it makes a big difference between the governor and the attorney general,” she said. “Wisconsin is very purple-and we are in a real fight with our hands on this issue.”

When Roe was decided, abortion was widely legal in four states, allowed in limited circumstances in the other 16 states, and outlawed in almost all other situations. According to the Guttmacher Institute, in 1974, a year after Roe, there were about 900,000 abortions in the United States.

Abortion has steadily increased, peaking at 1.61 million in 1990 and then steadily decreasing. In the latest Guttmacher survey for 2017, the number dropped to 862,000. This decline is due to the increased availability of effective contraception and the unintentional plunge in pregnancy, especially among teenagers.

Females also have safer and easier options for ending their pregnancy. Currently, drug abortion accounts for about 40% of abortions in the United States. The advocacy group is spreading the word about abortion drugs that can be used at home without the involvement of medical professionals.

Increased use of mail-order pills could pose a dilemma to the anti-abortion movement, given that its leaders generally say they do not support criminalizing the behavior of women seeking abortion. I have. Tablets are often shipped from abroad. Those suppliers are elusive targets for prosecutors.

Arons, an ACLU lawyer, says anti-abortion activists are deceiving themselves if they believe that post-abortion bans will allow them to live without abortion.

“People who want to end their pregnancy will find a way to do so, whether legal or not,” she said. “The need is always there.”

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The Associated Press’s religious coverage is supported by Lilly Endowment through The Conversation US. AP is solely responsible for this content.

In the event of the Roe v. Wade case, the dispute over the abortion law will not be eased.

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